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標題: 911事件後中亞地區恐怖主義發展與反恐之研究
A Study on the Development of Terrorism and Counter-terrorism in Central Asia after the 911 Events
作者: 陳新明
Chen, Hsin-Ming
Contributors: 劉廣華;陳世民
蔡明彥
Tsai Ming-Yen
中興大學
關鍵字: Central Asia;Terrorism;Extremism;Counter-terrorism
中亞;恐怖主義;極端勢力;反恐
日期: 2008
Issue Date: 2012-09-04 16:03:41 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 國際政治研究所
摘要: 中亞地區的戰略地理位置,一直是兵家必爭之地。特殊的地緣優勢及豐富的天然資源,使得中亞地區成為世界強權的爭奪對象。中亞五國-哈薩克、烏茲別克、吉爾吉斯、塔吉克、土庫曼獨立後,三個「極端主義」(宗教極端主義、民族分裂主義、國際恐怖主義)的恐怖組織,已出現串連情形。
中亞五國雖然以其薄弱的能力致力反恐行動,且在美國所主導的全球反恐戰爭之努力下,恐怖活動已有逐漸減緩的趨勢,但仍然是該區域國家最大的安全挑戰。本文運用文獻分析法,探討中亞五國當今恐怖主義情勢的發展,以及本身的反恐作為與合作關係。
從長期發展來看,中亞五國持續將因為恐怖主義的因素,讓美國、中國及俄羅斯等強權國家,以「反恐」為由介入中亞地區,藉助其軍事力量,鏟除威脅本地區安全的不利因素;此區因蘊藏豐富的石油,中亞五國亦希望藉此推動國內經濟發展,維護自身的利益。雖然在中亞的賽局中,美國已佔戰略優勢,但想要重建中亞新秩序,以及獲取其豐厚的能源利益,前景仍然充滿許多挑戰。
強權國家在中亞的戰略利益,既有差異性,又有共同性,利益交叉,可算是脆弱的相互平衡,但對中亞地區的安全和發展,目前是有正面影響的。進一步而言,恐怖主義是否能在中亞地區根絕,將有賴於各國強化其反恐機制之協調,以及區域間的反恐合作。
The strategic position of Central Asia has been a critical area. Featured by the geographical superiority and abundant natural resources, Central Asia has always been the concern of great powers. After the independence of the five countries in Central Asia-Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the “Three Extremism”(religious extremism, ethnic secession, international terrorism) have begun to be a coalition to each other.
Central Asian countries'' management capabilities are too weak to cope with the threats caused by terrorism; however, under the US-led global anti- terrorism campaigns, the terrorist activities in Central Asian have been decreasing. This study is using the qualitative analysis to probe into the development of terrorism in Central Asia and the actions of counter terrorism and coalition relationships among these countries.
In the long term, USA, China and Russia, on the plea of counter terrorism, are going to intervene the situation in Central Asia to exclude those uncereainties for regional security. Due to the abundant storage of oil, the Central Asian countries also count on great powers to develop their domestic economics. In Central Asia, USA have taken the advantage on the strategic aspect. However, to rebuild the order of Central Asia, the US are still encountering many challenges in the future.
The strategic interests of great powers in Central Asia are characterized by the diversity, consistence and over-lapping interests. Even though the regional balance is based on fragile condition, it still holds the positive influence to the regional development and security of Central Asia. Furthermore, the elimination of terrorism of Central Asia will rely on the enhancement of the cooperation of counter terrorism among the countries in this region.
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