|摘要: ||As the average family income and living standard increase, both the people and governments are becoming more and more aware of the environmental issues. Hoping to be part of the solutions for ameliorating the environment issues, thus people and governments started purchasing green products or conducting green procurements. Many corporations saw this whole new green product consumption trend as a brand new opportunity for profit expansion, and started offering all kinds of green product as alternatives to traditional commercial goods. As a result, the number of the sales for green product or the demand for green product is increasing every year. However, the rate for the demand of green products is not climbing as fast as expected. There are many factors may accelerate the rate for demand of green products, for example financial incentives offered by either governments or retailers, and taxation on the non-green products. Whether these factors actually affect the demand is uncertain, which create uncertainties for the retailers to precisely predict the procurement quantity for green product to avoid inventory risk.|
In order to resolve the procurement problem caused by uncertainties, this thesis proposes using portfolio contracts to mitigate the inventory risk. The portfolio consists of three types of contract: structured (S), option, and short term (ST) contracts. The option contract is the key of this portfolio of contracts, where it uses the concept of real options to grants retailers the flexibility in adjusting order quantity for green products. The Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model is used to calculate the option price. Simulations are conducted to analyze effectiveness of the portfolio contracts. The simulation creates different green product demand lines bases on the data of historical sales of paper products of Cheng Loong Corporation. The total cost for procuring with portfolio contracts is compared with extreme case of only S contract to see the effectiveness.
The simulation results found that (1) switching contract type from long-term only to a portfolio of contracts can lower procurement costs, (2) a portfolio of contracts generates even less procurement costs compare to a long-term contract only as market volatility increases to 80%, (3) the unit price with option contract affects the overall procurement cost, (4) the simulation result indicates that, the S contract volume inside the portfolio should be around 96% of the minimum demand of previous year to mitigate procurement cost, (5) increasing option contract volume inside the portfolio generates less procurement cost compare to a long-term contract only. However, the simulation result shows option contract volume exceeding 70% wanes the cost benefit of a portfolio of contracts, and (6) the minimum procurement cost can be achieved, if a portfolio of contracts has the appropriate contract volume and unit price of green product.