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National Chung Hsing University Institutional Repository - NCHUIR > 管理學院 > 科技管理研究所 > 依資料類型分類 > 碩博士論文 >  風險導向實質選擇權架構之彈性技術規劃 – 以電源模組產業M公司為例

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nchuir.lib.nchu.edu.tw/handle/309270000/153191

標題: 風險導向實質選擇權架構之彈性技術規劃 – 以電源模組產業M公司為例
A Risk-Based Real Options Framework for Flexible Technology Planning – A Case Study of M Company in the Power Module Industry
作者: 鄭全宏
Cheng, Chuan-Hung
Contributors: 王瑞德
科技管理研究所
關鍵字: 研發專案;實質選擇權;技術地圖;模擬最佳化;電源模組
R&D Project;Real Options;Technology Roadmapping;Simulation Optimization;Power Module
日期: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-11-18 13:54:46 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 科技管理研究所
摘要: 現今快速變動又高度競爭的產業環境下,企業紛紛增加新技術的研發(R&D)投入以維持競爭力和鞏固未來產品走向,然而探討新技術發展固然重要,若未與企業策略有效相結合,則最終往往無法達成市場效益和企業目標。同時,新技術的研發面臨市場和研發等高風險,若一旦企業研發能力與市場變動等不確定性對新技術研發的可行性和投資價值所造成的衝擊評估錯誤與管控不當,將可能導致專案失敗並造成企業的巨額投資損失。
故本研究以台灣電源模組產業某知名電源轉換模組企業(簡稱: M公司)為研究案例,依據個案公司所提供之實際數據進行實證研究。首先根據Fast-Start技術地圖(Technology Roadmapping)概念來探討M公司所需之新技術研發專案”電源模組ASIC”以達到企業資源與策略的協同一致,並針對該新技術專案進行風險認定(Risk Identification)與風險回應規劃(Risk Response Planning),使其專案規劃和執行之前能夠較完整和清楚的掌握未來所可能會面臨的情況以及所能採取的決策彈性。最後透過本文所提出之風險導向彈性規劃模型(Risk-Based Flexibility Planning Model),探討專案面臨各種不同風險概況時,給予最佳的決策路徑(Optimal Decision Path)。因此不僅能規避專案風險而提升專案正報酬機率,更替研發專案創造更高的投資價值。
依據研究案例實證結果,風險回應規劃能有效的將面臨的風險概況以及所需的決策資源予以展開和清楚的掌握,並透過風險導向彈性規劃模型來提供決策者在專案研發過程中可能面臨何種風險概況及該採取何種最佳決策機制因應,讓企業能以客觀分析和貼近實務應用的方式來針對高度不確定性的新技術研發投資專案進行評價與彈性化風險管控。
Due to highly competitive and dynamic industrial environment, companies are trying to increase new technology development investments to sustain their competitive advantages and to strengthen their product directions in the future. However, if technology development is not linked with corporate strategy effectively, then it can’t achieve market benefits and company goals eventually. In addition, new technology development will encounters many different kinds of market and technology risks, a company does not well manage those risks, it may lead to project failure resulting in enormous investment losses.
This research selects a well-known power conversion module company in Taiwan (named: M company) as our research case. At first, The technology roadmapping concept is used to link business strategies with specific technology solutions and the technology project “Power Module Application of Specific Integrated Circuit” is chosen from M company for this study. Secondly, risk identification and risk response planning are performed for the project and managerial flexibilities are included in the project for better manage and control the risks. Finally, a risk-based flexibility planning model is developed to evaluate and select optimal decision path to reduce project risks, while increasing investment opportunities.
Base on results, we show that proposed methodology can manage and control risks and maximize the project value effectively for new technology investment projects. In addition, decision maker can explore possible risk scenarios they may encounter and determine appropriate decisions to manage risks for highly uncertain technology investment projects.
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