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National Chung Hsing University Institutional Repository - NCHUIR > 法政學院 > 國家政策與公共事務研究所 > 依資料類型分類 > 碩博士論文 >  資本管制與貨幣危機之關聯性研究–東亞新興市場之實證分析

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nchuir.lib.nchu.edu.tw/handle/309270000/153668

標題: 資本管制與貨幣危機之關聯性研究–東亞新興市場之實證分析
The Association between Capital Control and Currency Crisis – An Empirical Analysis of Emerging Market in East Asia
作者: 林佩貞
Lin, Pei-Chen
Contributors: 邱明斌
國家政策與公共事務研究所
關鍵字: 資本管制;貨幣危機;政治穩定性
capital controls;currency crisis;government stability
日期: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-11-18 15:31:00 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 國家政策與公共事務研究所
摘要: 經濟全球化之下,金融自由化與國際化是不可避免的趨勢,東亞新興市場國家隨著時代的潮流,逐一開放金融市場,對於國際資本大量的湧入,雖可成為經濟發展所需的資本,但在金融體制不健全、政局更迭、國家制度不穩定等情況下,亦容易引發貨幣危機。因此,本研究旨在以東亞新興市場國家為研究對象,並將政治穩定性納入研究變數中,探討資本管制與貨幣危機之關聯性。
方法上,本研究以學者Schindler於2009年所提出的資本管制衡量方式,透過Probit迴歸模型進行實證研究,瞭解資本管制是否能降低金融危機的發生率。最後,除以泰國、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、中國等四個國家做案例說明外,並將政治、文化及經濟發展較為相似的臺灣與韓國兩國做分析比較。
實證分析結果發現,資本管制與貨幣危機呈現顯著負相關,即一國所實施的資本管制越嚴格,越能降低貨幣危機的發生率;而政治穩定性與貨幣危機呈現顯著正相關,探究其原因,可能在於本研究所選定的期間,正值東亞各國政府大力推行經濟發展政策,大量吸引外國投資客投資,在經濟快速成長情況下,人民對於政權鬥爭、執政者貪腐並不在意,本研究政治穩定性數據雖是採取頗受好評的政治風險組織所編制之國際國家風險資料庫作為衡量標準指標,其政治穩定性係以政府能夠實現、履行所頒布的政策以穩定政局的能力當作衡量標準,而在東亞各國經濟快速起飛的情況下,人民所能感受到的經濟利益大於政治因素,加上東亞國家的文化政治背景與西方國家迥異,以其西方國家所建構衡量政治穩定性之政治風組織資料庫作為本研究衡量政治穩定性之指標,亦會導致結果之差異。
最後,本研究結論為在適當的時機、匯率制度相互配合下,資本管制可成為防範貨幣危機發生的有效手段。
In the era of economic globalization, financial liberalization and international–
lization is an inevitable trend. With the trend of the times, the emerging market countries in East Asia liberalize their financial markets one by one. Although the influx of a vast amount of international capital may become the capital needed for economic development, the unsound financial system, and the unstable political state in these countries may lead to a currency crisis. Therefore, this research aims to probe into the correlation between capital controls and currency crises, with the variables of government stability of the emerging market countries in East Asia.
As to methodology, this research is conducted with Schindler’s approach to measure capital controls (2009), through the empirical Probit regression model, to determine whether the capital controls can reduce the occurrence of financial crises. We illustrate the empirical results with case studies such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China, and also make a comparative analysis between Taiwan and South Korea, since they are similar in political, cultural and economic development.
The empirical results are significant negative correlation between capital controls and currency crisis; that is, the stricter a country''s implementation of the capital controls, the more likely it can reduce the occurrence rate of currency crisis. Probing into the cause of the reasons, maybe East Asian governments are vigorously implementing economic development policies to attract investments from foreign investors during the selected period of this study. With rapid economic growth, their people are not quite concerned about the power struggle and the corruption of the rulers. Besides, the data of government stability in this study is taken from The Political Risk Services Inc compiled by the international country risk guide database. Its government stability is determined by the government’s ability to carry out and implement the proclaimed policies. With the rapid development of economic development, their people value economic benefits more than political factors. Additionally, the political background is very different between the East Asian countries and the Western countries. It would lead to differences in results by using the risk guide database of government stability compiled by The Political Risk Services Inc. in the Western countries.
To sum up, in proper situations, correlated with appropriate exchange rate system, capital controls can be an effective means to prevent currency crises.
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