English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 43312/67235
Visitors : 2077580      Online Users : 24
RC Version 5.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU/NCHU Library IR team.
National Chung Hsing University Institutional Repository - NCHUIR > 法政學院 > 國家政策與公共事務研究所 > 依資料類型分類 > 碩博士論文 >  選舉策略對一致投票與分裂投票的實證研究:2010年臺中市市長選舉之分析

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nchuir.lib.nchu.edu.tw/handle/309270000/153669

標題: 選舉策略對一致投票與分裂投票的實證研究:2010年臺中市市長選舉之分析
The Empirical Study on the Different Impact with Electional Strategies of Unanimous Vote or Split Vote for Taichung Mayor Suffrage in 2010
作者: 謝承辰
Hsieh, Cheng Chen
Contributors: 李長晏
國家政策與公共事務研究所
關鍵字: 選舉策略;一致投票;分裂投票;賽局理論;選戰行銷
election strategy;unanimous vote;split voting;game theory;marketing campaign
日期: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-11-18 15:31:04 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 國家政策與公共事務研究所
摘要: 2010年就臺中市長選舉而言,選區的改變、選民增加、都會區與非都會區的型態、地方派系勢力合作等各項變數,造成此次臺中市長改選和歷屆市長選舉有著極大差異,而候選人胡志強與蘇嘉全所面臨的競選條件也隨之不同,面對如此繁複的環境,如何選擇最佳的策略,透過理性選擇的假設,彼此間的賽局盟略也為雙方候選人所思索的。
本研究嘗試以2010年五都市長選舉為研究對象,藉由選舉結果歸納,對於臺中市之選舉結果,選民的投票行為進行研究,以文獻探討方式,針對相關新聞議題、廣告策略、文宣塑造等,進一步對於選舉策略運作及其成效是否影響選舉結果進行討論,以使用TEDS臺灣選舉與民主化調查資料庫(2010年直轄市市長選舉面訪案)面訪資料,進一步驗證選舉策略是否與一致投票或分裂投票的行為有關,同時輔以深度訪談,了解候選人競選策略之動機,了解是否選舉策略導致了選民投票行為的改變。
在經過統計資料驗證,以及訪談結果的整理後,臺中市上次選舉的過程裡,雙方候選人並非為最佳的選擇,國民黨候選人胡志強的競選策略與市議員脫鉤,無法相輔相成,創造雙贏;民進黨蘇嘉全仍然突破不了都會區選民的認同。加強整合派系是國民黨未來選戰刻不容緩的行動,民進黨則需思索轉型為都會形象與鄉村草根間平衡的塑造,而不論是何政黨當選,能夠徹底以民為本、民意為歸才是民主政治的美麗成就。
In 2010 Taichung Mayor elections, the constituency changes, the voters increased, the patterns of the metropolitan area and non-metropolitan areas, cooperation with other local factions forces variables, resulting in the Taichung Mayor election has a great difference form the past mayoral elections. The candidate Su,Chia-Chuan and Hu,Chih-Chiang conditions faced campaign also will be different from the face of such a complex environment, how to choose the best strategy, through the assumption of rational choice, another zero-sum game between the two sides are also thinking about the candidates .

We tried to study all five mayoral elections in 2010 for the study, summarized by the election results, the election results for Taichung, voter behavior studies to literature methods for related news topics, advertising strategies, propaganda shaping, etc. further strategies for the operation and effectiveness of the election would not affect the election results are discussed in order to use TEDS Taiwan''s Election and Democratization Study database (2010 mayoral election municipalities interviewed case) interviews data further validate whether the unanimous vote of the election strategy or split vote acts, supplemented depth interviews to understand the motives of candidates campaign strategy, campaign strategy led to know whether voting behavior change.

After statistical data validation, as well as interviews with the results after finishing the course of the last election in Taichung, the two sides are not the best choice of candidates, the KMT candidate Hu,Chih-Chiang campaign strategy and city councilors decoupled and can not complement each other, creating a win-win; DPP Su Jia-Chuan still could not break the metropolitan area voters agree. Strengthen the integration of the KMT faction urgent action next election, the DPP will need to think about the image and transformed into a balance between rural grassroots shape, regardless of what political party is elected to completely serving the community, public opinion is democratic normalization politics beautiful achievement.
Appears in Collections:[依資料類型分類] 碩博士論文

Files in This Item:

File Description SizeFormat
nchu-102-7100091010-1.pdf3332Kb287View/Open
index.html0KbHTML135View/Open


 


學術資源

著作權聲明

本網站為收錄中興大學學術著作及學術產出,已積極向著作權人取得全文授權,並盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益。如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員,將盡速為您處理。

本網站之數位內容為國立中興大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用。

聯絡網站維護人員:wyhuang@nchu.edu.tw,04-22840290 # 412。

DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU/NCHU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback