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標題: 歐債問題發展及其結構性影響
The Development of Euro Debt Crisis and Its Structural Impact
作者: 何幸珍
Ho, Sing-Jhen
Contributors: 蔡東杰
國際政治研究所
關鍵字: 歐債危機;PIIGS
European debt crisis
日期: 2013
Issue Date: 2013-11-19 12:05:54 (UTC+8)
Publisher: 國際政治研究所
摘要: 歐債問題係自2007年美國發生次貸風暴及2008年雷曼兄弟聲請破產保護引發金融海嘯衍生而來,可由美國聯準會通過「新陶德一法蘭克」法案秘密紓困歐洲金融業得知歐美連動性高。加上歐元區實施單一貨幣,有其結構性缺陷及長期高福利政策等諸多因素,使體質虛弱的南歐國家如葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、義大利、希臘及西班牙等俗稱PIIGS國家債台高築陷入主權債信問題及金融危機之困境。導致歐元區失業率至2013年4月高達12.1%,經濟成長率GDP負0.4%,影響歐元區及全球經濟衰退。
由於國家經濟金融債務問題,常須藉由政治力介入解決,且由於國際體系呈現多極狀態,國家與國家間互相影響,使國際政治與經濟問題連結在一起屬「結構現實主義」範疇。故歐債危機之發生雖屬歐元體系問題,但經過歐洲半世紀的整合過程才建立歐元區統一貨幣,經Treoika(歐盟、國際貨幣基金、歐洲央行)各方極力挽救,應不致使歐元崩解。且全球經濟結構係以美元為中心之貨幣體系,許多商品貨物流通均以美元計價。如歐債危機無法解決,將嚴重影響美國及中國二大經濟體。故歐債問題由美國、中國共同解決有其決定性,而歐洲自身之努力仍是關鍵,須在政治及財政聯盟方面進行整合,甚至以讓渡部分主權方式建立共識及制度,以早日解決問題,脫離困境。
「危機即是轉機」歐債問題目前雖「以拖待變」等待契機出現,但最壞情況已過去。由於美國國債高達16兆美元,已承受龐大債務壓力使國力削減。而歐洲須進一步整合,以鞏固歐元在國際上地位。另中國是美國國債最大債權國,美國始終呼籲人民幣升值及國際化,以減輕壓力。故未來國際貨幣體系由於歐債問題引發全球經濟結構之變遷,可能會由美元為核心的經濟結構體轉變為美元、歐元、人民幣三足鼎立,或其他不同情勢變化,值得再繼續研究深入探討。
European debt crisis can be traced from the Great Recession caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 and Lehman Brothers’ filing for bankruptcy protection in 2008. The US and European close interrelationship can be seen via the pass of Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act by the US Federal Reserve System (FED) to secretly relieve European financial business. The sovereign debt crisis and financial crisis of PIIGS countries, such as Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain, were engendered by the structural deficiency of the single currency and long-termed high social welfare in the Eurozone. All of these led to the 12.1% of the unemployment rate and -0.4% of GDP in the Eurozone in April 2013, affecting the economic growth of the Eurozone and contributing to the global recession.

National economic and financial debt problems often require political intervention to find solutions, while an international system is multipolar and mutually influential, creating a realistic structural linkage of international politics and economics. The occurrence of European debt crisis appears to be a problem of the Eurozone, but because of its single currency, a half-century effort integrating Europe and because of the assistance from its countries, Euro would not crash. In addition, as the US dollar is the center of global economic structure and many currency systems and logistics are priced byit, if the Eurozone crisis cannot be resolved, the crisis will severely influence the US and Chinese economic systems. Therefore, the Eurozone crisis needs helps from the US and China, and yet Europe’s self-effort is still the key. Europe needs further integrations of political and financial leagues and should even yield part of its sovereignty to establish consensus and systems to solve its problems sooner.

A crisis is a turning point. Although the Eurozone crisis does not have much progress and still awaits changes so far, the worst has gone. At the moment, the US national debts have reached sixteen trillion US dollars, which pressure has enfeebled the US; Europe needs further integration to reinforce its international status; China is the greatest debtor of the US, who always calls for the revaluation and internationalization of Renminbi (RMB) to alleviate the stress. Hence, as the Eurodebt crisis causes the restructuring of global economics, the future international currency system will likely switch from the US-dollar-centered structure to the triumvirate of the US dollars, Euro, and RMB, or other forms, all of which are worth further studies.
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